Well, everyone else has been calling for a market crash, so I thought maybe I should too. But, while I think the market will likely crash again, I don’t think it is going to happen just yet, as I still believe this bull market has several more years to run.
When I peruse the articles on Seeking Alpha, it seems to be en vogue today to be bearish. The headline articles discuss how the market has now moved into being a bear market, or that the VIX is about to skyrocket, or the market is overvalued, discussions of black swans, the impending debt crisis, etc.
Turn back the clock to early 2016 and 45% lower in the S&P500, and were we not reading the exact same articles?
And, of course, this time is certainly different. There are a whole new set of issues that we need to worry about, right?
I mean, are the issues with which we are now grappling much worse than what we faced back in 2016 and 2017 when the market saw one of its strongest rally in years?
Think about it. Are we dealing with anything worse than the cessation of QE, North Korean atomic threat, major terrorist attacks worldwide, Brexit, Frexit, Grexit, Trump election, rising interest rates, and many more I don’t even care to list.
Now, if you have been an active member of the market over the last several years, and you have not come to the realization that all these “issues” mattered not to the market as it continued to soar, then you have not been paying attention. All these issues are purely bearish noise which a prudent investor learns how to tune out. Rather, a prudent investor understands when this noise simply helps build that wall of worry which the market climbs.