Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

The Stock Market Is Going To Crash

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Well, everyone else has been calling for a market crash, so I thought maybe I should too. But, while I think the market will likely crash again, I don’t think it is going to happen just yet, as I still believe this bull market has several more years to run.

When I peruse the articles on Seeking Alpha, it seems to be en vogue today to be bearish. The headline articles discuss how the market has now moved into being a bear market, or that the VIX is about to skyrocket, or the market is overvalued, discussions of black swans, the impending debt crisis, etc.

Turn back the clock to early 2016 and 45% lower in the S&P500, and were we not reading the exact same articles?

And, of course, this time is certainly different. There are a whole new set of issues that we need to worry about, right?

I mean, are the issues with which we are now grappling much worse than what we faced back in 2016 and 2017 when the market saw one of its strongest rally in years?

Think about it. Are we dealing with anything worse than the cessation of QE, North Korean atomic threat, major terrorist attacks worldwide, Brexit, Frexit, Grexit, Trump election, rising interest rates, and many more I don’t even care to list.

Now, if you have been an active member of the market over the last several years, and you have not come to the realization that all these “issues” mattered not to the market as it continued to soar, then you have not been paying attention. All these issues are purely bearish noise which a prudent investor learns how to tune out. Rather, a prudent investor understands when this noise simply helps build that wall of worry which the market climbs.


How Far Will the Bonds Fall?

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Considering how much unintentional excitement I’ve had over the past 72 hours, I’m glad it’s a boring market day. Indeed, it’s like watching paint dry. “Old faithful”, the emerging market bonds fund, is down, even on a day like this. It seems ambitious, but I’ve laid down a target low for this pattern. It’s been rather breathtaking how reliable this short position has proved itself for months now.


Slow Boiling Bull Frogs

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PREFACE FROM TIM: The spiffy new site is absolutely crushing our server pool, so slowness (and occasional downtime) have been happening this morning. After the close today, we are going to VASTLY expand our server pool, so please don’t be shocked to see Slope completely down. I promise that no harm will come to your computer, including spontaneously bursting into flames. Just keep being patient, Slopers!

The following is part of the Market Sentiment segment of this week’s edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 498. I’ve given it a funny name that would be less funny for a lot of people if the scenario actually plays out.

Slow Boiling Bull Frogs

Last week we reviewed Commercial Hedgers data that was bullish for the stock market and other sentiment data points that were not. The picture was mixed and our view was that a bounce (to short into, if you are bearish) was likely.

Refining that a bit, we reintroduce the ‘M’ retest possibility. It’s not a call or even a favored outcome since the stock market is still generally below markers like the SMA 50 and a series of declining highs. But as Apple showed us last week, this pig can scream higher at any time that animal spirits get unleashed. (more…)