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Let’s take an in-day snapshot of gold vs. several key competitors (for your investment dollars/euros/yen, etc.) and check the progress in turning the macro from risk ‘on’ to risk ‘off’, cyclical to counter-cyclical.
Gold/Commodities motors along above the SMA 200. The move has been hysterical, and thus looks impulsive. That could mean something as we look back in hindsight one day.
I saw my portfolio swing from a fat profit to a medium-sized loss back to a small profit, all thanks to President Bonespurs trying to talk up the U.S./China relationship and attempts to put some kind of trade “deal” together. Let’s break down these talking points:
*TRUMP: CHINA WOULD LIKE TO MAKE A DEAL – of course they would! I’d like a deal too! I’d like to buy a new Ferrari! I don’t have to mention I’m willing to pay $1,000 for it. But I do want a deal.
*TRUMP: CHINA SENT LIST OF THINGS WILLING TO DO ON TRADE – so fucking what? “Here’s my list of demands!” Who cares?
*TRUMP: THINK WE WILL HAVE GREAT RELATIONSHIP WITH CHINA – yeah, well, we DID.
*TRUMP SAYS MAY NOT HAVE TO DO MORE CHINESE TARIFFS – yeah, maybe! Maybe not! Could be! Or perhaps not!
*TRUMP: DON’T WANT TO PUT CHINA IN BAD POSITION – what else is he going to say in advance of discussions? That he WANTS them in a bad position?
*TRUMP: CHINA LIST PRETTY COMPLETE, FOUR OR FIVE THINGS LEFT OFF – no details at all. Just “pretty complete.” The sort of explanation a fifth grader might provide. (more…)
Two of my short ideas from my idea dump yesterday (or was it the day before?) included these purveyors of high-fat, high-salt, cheaply-made crap that Americans love to choke down. Cheesecake Factory (CAKE):
I’ve been pretty obsessed with the “diamond” pattern in the semiconductor index for many, many weeks (as my poor premium subscribers can attest). The NVDA news yesterday afternoon kind of clinches the whole thing. Semis will be an important driver today.