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At the open Thursday morning there was a key common thread on SPX, NDX and RUT, in that all three were either close (SPX & NDX), or at (RUT) their key resistance trendlines from the all time highs. As I’ve been writing the falling channel resistance on SPX and falling wedge resistance on NDX have both broken, with RUT having already broken up earlier today.
What this means is that this move is entering a new phase, either setting retests of the all time highs or signalling retracement and consolidation before the next move down. The more obvious move is retracement and consolidation but we could see the high retests, and I’d note that the seasonality favors the bulls into late December, and that while all the hourly RSI 14 buy signals made target yesterday, the daily RSI 14 buy signals on SPX, NDX and RUT are still nowhere near target. (more…)
Before I begin, a couple of bits of business. First, some folks have been expressing an interest in the brokerage Tastyworks. If you want to sign up, for the love of Tim, please sign up for tastyworks here – – it doesn’t cost you any extra, and they throw me a few shekels for helping them out. Thank you!
Second, apologies to my PREMIUM customers for dialing back on my posts, but honestly, the G20 scares the bejesus out of me, and I promise to be more prolific once it’s out of the way. I am staying very light, as I’ve said ad nauseum, until this stupid get-together is over.
Today, Thursday, was basically Wednesday in miniature. Early weakness, strength out of the blue, and basically another bear-beating. Interestingly, the ES retreated from my “do not cross here” line (the high price of the previous “lower high”), but it’s horrifyingly close. (more…)
I suspect the market is going to be in a state of “arrested development” today and tomorrow, since everyone and his brother is waiting for the stupid G20 to finish and some kind of announcement (or lack thereof) to be made.
In the meanwhile, let’s take a look at the emerging markets ETF, which has been steadfastly bearish all year long. I’ve circled in red where the respective crossunders took place with the exponential moving averages (50/100/200) and have tinted each “lower high”. This downtrend will remain intact as long as no “higher high” takes place.
A few days ago, I stumbled upon a fun little riddle which you can see here. (The answer is here but try to solve it first). When I was a kid, I used to do brain teasers, tests, and puzzles all the time, and I was pretty good at them. I stopped being a student decades ago, though, and even though this riddle was labeled “Easy”, I gave up.
The approach I took was a logical and binary one. I simply tried the direct approach of trying to figure out which switches corresponded to which light. When I found the problem unsolvable and peeked at the answer, I saw that I had totally missed another data point (I won’t allude to it here, since I don’t want to spoil the puzzle for you). (more…)