Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Why $10,000 Gold Will Not Be What You Think

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By Avi Gilburt, ElliottWaveTrader.net

For almost 7 years now, I have been actively engaged in the online community relating to investing opportunities.  In fact, my first public article about a specific asset was when I called for a top in gold back in the summer of 2011, when most were certain we were about to easily eclipse the $2,000 mark.  However, my expectation was that the $1,915 region would likely put a cap to this rally, despite the parabolic rally we were experiencing in gold at the time.  And, as we now know, gold topped at $1,921 about a month after my top call.

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Their Job: Entertain. Your Job: Ignore.

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Agree 100%, Charlie.

See: Buy in May and Stay Invested

Now, I am not of that ilk personally. My closely held biases are that a) the market’s cycles can be interpreted and managed (although my bias also has led me astray at times, in my execution) and b) that the economy, and by extension the markets, are not normal; not your grandpa’s economy and markets because they are ginned and steroidally goosed by off-the-charts (i.e. experimental) central bank meddling. That’s my bias in line with my entire history of public writing since 2004.

So I am not a stock market apologist, bull wise guy or ‘buy ‘n hold stocks for the long’ run tout. But I am the guy who is frequently nonplussed about the mainstream media fanning the flames of investor/trader sentiment during inflammatory news cycles. As Charlie says “it is their job to entertain” and “your job to ignore”.

But this applies not only in the major media. It applies to the minor media as well. Led by ZeroHedge, a whole raft of blogs and other entities are going to fan your flames with all sorts of opinionated, agenda driven or just plain biased information. And what Charlie has right is that it is absolutely imperative to tune it the hell out. That is because the bias never changes because it is promoting emotional viewpoints, promoting sides, teams. In the market the only side is the right side, whether your little heart of hearts agrees with it or not. (more…)

Steady Progress

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Since early last week, it has been heartening to see bonds resume their downward trek. Not only has the progress lower been steady, but the “lower highs” are getting weaker each time, not even mustering a tag of their resistance trendline anymore. My TLT and XLU puts are counting on a long-term erosion. I also continue to hold the view that rising interest rates will sink real estate prices (Palo Alto notwithstanding).

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