Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Are You An Investor Being Set Up For The Slaughter?

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For many years, I have been a staunch bull. In fact, many commenters and contributors on Seeking Alpha and MarketWatch were quite vocal regarding how they thought I was crazy back in 2016 for expecting the market to go from 1800 to over 2600SPX, and potentially up through 3000. Needless to say, many of them remained bearish throughout that rally. 

When many were extremely bearish in early 2016, I was pounding the table about a global melt up. When many were saying before the election that you should “sell everything if Trump gets elected,” we were again pounding the table for a rally over 2600SPX “no matter who got elected.” 

And, now that I am taking off my bull-suit, and have sent out my bear suit to be cleaned and pressed, these former bears are claiming that they “learned their lesson” and are now strongly urging investors to buy the dip. 
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Volatility Floor?

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Volatility, which spent so much of 2018 mired in the doldrums, painted out a series of higher lows late in the summer (see trio of green tinted areas). After that third touchpoint, it exploded higher over a hundred percent, only to have the excitement evacuate as swiftly as it appeared. I’ve tinted a horizontal, however, to suggest that perhaps we’re in a new volatility zone. I hope so, at least. Let’s keep an eye on that level to see if it holds, because this chart would suggest bullishness on volatility going forward.

Trump Bemoans Fed Rate Hikes and He’s Got a Point… Sort Of

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See…

Trump delivers another attack on Fed, calling central bank the biggest threat

Here is the entire article (blurb)…

President Donald Trump unleashed another attack on the Federal Reserve, calling the central bank his “biggest threat,” in an interview he gave to Fox Business Network. “My biggest threat is the Fed,” Trump said, according to excerpts released by the network ahead of an interview to air at 8 p.m. Eastern. “Because the Fed is raising rates too fast and it’s independent so I don’t speak to them but I’m not happy with what he’s doing because it’s going too fast because you looked at the last inflation numbers they are very low.” When pointed out to Trump that he nominated Jerome Powell instead of Janet Yellen, the president said he wasn’t blaming anyone. “I put him there and maybe it’s right maybe it’s wrong but I put him there.” He also referenced the other nominees to the Fed he’s made. “I put a couple of other people there I’m not so happy with too but for the most part I’m very happy with people.”

“Because the Fed is raising rates too fast…”

The 2 year note players in the bond market are and have been raising rates too fast if anybody is; and I don’t think they are. But Trump does have a point in that it appears the Fed is playing catch up on his watch after being way too slack on the previous administration’s watch (as I used to routinely bitch about). (more…)

There Will Be NO REFUNDS!

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This would be a lot funnier on a big down day, but meh, I need a comment cleaner!

The Uncrossed Chasm

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The big earnings news yesterday afternoon was Netflix (there was an era when it would have been IBM, but times have changed). I had no position in NFLX, and frankly, I hardly ever touch the thing, but it was an explosive move higher. What surprised me was that, explosive or not, the rip didn’t even get it to its former high.  Indeed, as I am typing this, the stock’s gains are shrinking very rapidly. I wonder if we’re at “Peak Netflix” now.

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